William Blake Quote

"Truth can never be told so as to be understood and not be believed."

Robert McNamara

Robert McNamara died recently. A confessed unconvicted War Criminal, McNamara was a logitician for the firebombing campaigns on Japan, and a reluctant architect of the Cuban Missle Crisis and most significantly, the Vietnam War. In addition to being a profoundly intelligent and capable CEO, Cabinet Secretary and World Bank Chief, Mcnamara was striking for his deep reflection and appreciation for the moral complexity of his actions as revealed in the excellent documentary Fog of War (torrent).

Here is the synopsis of an interview at Berkeley in 2004 including a webcast.

Who better to deduce the lessons and folly of War than a man who was its Commander. Here are a list of his 11 lessons:

1. Empathize with your enemy
2. Rationality will not save us
3. There's something beyond one's self
4. Maximize efficiency
5. Proportionality should be a guideline in war
6. Get the data
7. Belief and seeing are often both wrong
8. Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning
9. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil
10. Never say never
11. You can't change human nature

Controversial, terrible, and flawed as he was, a great man has died.

All the Pb in Zhong Guo

This story from the financial press ignores what is really going on. Forget importation of toxic goods; why is Zhong Guo so backwards that they are even manufacturing toys, or other consumer products, that contain lead. If Zhong Guo is ever to be part of an advanced glorious civilistation, this will have to stop.

C-SPAN Funding

Given the lack of commercials or NPR style begathon fund-raising and the intended lack of political bias of C-SPAN, it is surprising to learn from their recent public service announcements that they do not receive public ie government money. They are in fact sponsored as a public service by the US Cable Television companies.

We all owe these companies a debt of gratitude for documenting and archiving governmental proceedings, bringing more openness to government, and making it widely and freely available without a hint of commercialism or political favouratism. This is a task which should have been the responsibility of the National Archives in a well run government, yet corporate charity has come through to do the job better and cheaper than a Government run programme ever could.

Manuel Zelaya - Drugs Policy of an Ousted Honduran Presidente

We do not pretend to know the motivations for the recent coup of Presidente Manuel Zelaya, overthrown by members of the Honduran Army last week. Was the CIA involved? These are open questions.

All else aside, we do want to commend and support el Presidente on one particular issue. He was strongly in favour of ending the oppressive and immoral 'War on Drugs.'

It is always suspicious when such a person is overthrown, particularly when the CIA is known for having a history of profiting from the drugs trade and political meddling in the region. As Alex Jones stated, 'The Drug Dealers want to make sure the Drugs stay illegal.'

First Human in Space

Apparently Yuri Gagarin was not the first person in space. It was cosmonaut Colonel Vladimir Illysushin. Other conspiracies are also alleged.

Documentary Link

Digital Currency Trading Declared Illegal in China

Virtual Currencies threaten the power of governments by weakening their grip over the medium of exchange - ie Fiat Currency. In that sense, it is not surprising to see one of the more Authoritarian States definitively cracking down on Virtual Currency exchange. In practise, this will lessen the booming virtual currencies business and put many Chinese "gold farmers" out of work, but generally drive the digital currency market to ever higher levels of sophistication and security.

We have touched on this issue before.

An exposition on the topic of secure digital currencies can be found in David Friedman's Future Imperfect.

We suspect that the collapse of the value of the private US Federal Reserve Dollar will spark a real push for legalisation of competing Commodity backed digital currencies.

The Often Misleading State of Electronic Waste Recycling

PBS Frontline featured a disturbing piece recently concerning the processing of electronic waste. With an undercover investigation, Frontline revealed how Americans and Europeans are assured they are "recycling" electronic waste safely and locally. Instead it is all loaded onto containers that are shipped to Ghana or the southern Chinese city of Guiyu where people work in extremely dangerous conditions burning plastics, and poisoning themselves with heavy metals to extract trace amounts of precious metals. The waste is transported under the guise of "donations." While Africa particularly needs electronics if they have any hope of ever developing, Westerners should be made aware of the environmental and human dangers of e-waste "recycling," and law enforcement agencies ought to investigate fraud and environmental destruction in this regard. Hearing that one is "recycling" tends to eliminate a feeling of guilt for many Westerners, but the reality in this case is far from that.

Galapagos Tourism

Respect the nature of the Galapagos and the importance it had in informing Evolutionary Science, by never going there. Policymakers should strictly limit the number of allowed visitors or residents through licensing and taxation, and give collected rents to foundations which protect other nature preserves.

The Google God

Tonight's discourse:

Pace: I really think once people realise the efficiency, many will start programming to the Google Ap engine


Consigliere: uuuuuuuuuugh
that's a TERRIBLE idea
we already have one giant fucking monolith, i.e. Microsoft
why would we want to trade one for another?
the last thing the web needs is a single point of failure, like if google goes down and takes everybody's webapps with it


Pace: they are at least better than M$ - should theoretically still be reployable elsewhere without too much modification


Consigliere: they're only tbetter than M$ at the moment b/c htey';re not as big/dominant
but they certainly will become so
and there's a huge difference between "theoretically" and "in realitiy"


Pace: they do support open source though


Consigliere: it doesn't matter
I"m glad they do
but it'd still be a single point of failure


Pace: agreed


Consigliere: and god only knows what they'd do with all that data once they had it


Pace: they would become God


Consigliere: yeah, but a God beholden to capitalist shareholders


Pace: yes


Consigliere: it woudl be very Old Testament


Pace: haha

The Iranian Revolution

When one attempts to shut down or contain the Internet to suppress a discontented populace, one has lost all legitimacy to rule. خدا بزرگ است.

Augmented Reality and other Smartphone News

We've been holding out on buying a smart phone given the rapid acceleration taking place. Some of the applications we have seen are quite impressive. Here is one: Wikitude. Wikitude takes GPS and phone camera input, and overlays points of interest on the image.

By the way, if you check out the Recommended Stories section, you will see more reasons NOT to get an iPhone. Once again, Apple's insistence on running their users' lives drags down the company. Apple has banned an application which remotely administers legal torrent software, and now has also banned the Electronic Freedom Frontier's RSS application because they linked to a parody video Apple found potentially politically incorrect.

Information Technology in a Free Society should be used to enable Free Speech and Expression. We can not abide a company with such anti-human business practices, unless compelled by an oppressive regime as in Israel, Iran, or Zhong Guo. A California based company protected by the US Bill of Rights has no such excuse. We posit that in a well regulated market, such suppressions themselves would be illegal. In the meantime, boycott Apple.

US Foreign Policy Under President Obama

We voted for Barack Hussein Obama for one primary reason: foreign policy.  Having traveled as Americans overseas, we have seen how much antipathy has been created against the American Empire by the mismanagement of the Bush regime.  Barack Obama brings a fresh, worldly perspective to the Executive Branch which has been badly lacking for the last decade.  His ethnic heritage adds to his allure and his goodwill, especially in Africa.  His manifest intellect, open-mindedness, and respect for all people, combined with his brilliant oratory in the style of martyred human rights activists has made him a "Rock Star" both inside and especially outside the United States.

Isolationist Conspiracy Theorists will point to Obama's ethnicity as a strategy by Globalist Power-brokers, to command much greater leadership in Africa as a prelude to economic recolonisation and competition with the Chinese in the region.  This agenda may indeed come to pass, but is not sufficient reason to oppose Obama.  After all, the Americans generally take a greater humanitarian interest in Africa than do the Chinese or many African leaders themselves in recent years.  It should be stated though that despite any rhetoric and recent good intentions, the American track record in Africa has ranged from ignorance and neglect to enslavement.  

Conspiracy theories aside, this is 'Change [in Which] We Can Believe.'

Japanese Gardens

Stumbled Across this one. Well Designed site of Kyoto gardens.

Zeitgeist

I have been remiss in addressing many issues on this forum, let alone keeping up with the current events. I do apologise as there is much to be said, and much to be reported. Zeitgest is a propaganda film worth seeing. It addresses a very rough history of the origin of the Christian myth in Western Mythology with connections to astrology. This is somewhat interesting and entertaining though by no means a BBC documentary. Next, a stright up 9-11 Truth Conspiracy section (which I dont buy and do not recommend) ended with an informative and largely correct section on the origins, illegality, and fraud that genuinely is the Federal Reserve Banking Cartel.

Zeitgeist Addendum, the sequel, is even better. It refreshes us to the problems, and again addresses the Federal Reserve, fractional banking fiasco. It misunderstands monetary dynamics and fundamental economics in many respects,but makes some excelent points. Next it features the Economic Hitman followed by ample time to a living treasure, Jacque Fresco, and the Venus Project. .

By the way, I visited Jacque last march in Venus and will have more to say on him including a filmed interview.

In telling you to watch these films, know also that I do not agree with at least 50% of its assertions and analyses. Please also read and watch the criticisms which have merit, ironically coming from other Conspiracy Theorits who agree with most of the major premises but not the analyses or conclusions. Alex Jones. G Edward Griffin.

From Griffen:

All of the evils to which this program alludes are the result, not of the free enterprise system, but of the abandonment of free enterprise and the adoption of collectivism. This program creates a mythological boogeyman and then advocates more of the very thing that has brought us to the mess we are in today.

I think it is safe to say that money, trade and free enterprise as general technological systems are not the root of all our problems as Zeitgeist suggests. The redistribution of wealth is debatable as are laws and restrictions of markets and limitation of free contract. Money however is an inevitable property of combining scarcity, divisibility, transferability, durability and common perceived value.

The real battle emerging is between collectivist central-planning green technocrats - and the libertarian, self-sufficient, privacy-loving anarcho-Capitalists - perhaps these should be our emerging and conflicting dominant paradigms. Throw in some chaos from Fundamentalist Abrahamic Apocalypse Cult Fascists and Nihilists. Welcome to the Future.

The Trade

Go long Gold with stocks like GLD or more securely with a VIA MAT vault and private, tradable, liquid market through BullionVault. Higher priced GoldMoney is an alternative. With BullionVaut you can buy and sell gold in London, Zurich and New York.

Go long other precious/industrial metals: Silver (SLV, Goldmoney, and soon BullionVault), Platinum (PHPT), Palladium (PHPD), Copper (COPA), Steel

Go long the mineral slime Crude Oil (CRUD) and oil services companies particularly non-American companies. American Oil companies make huge profits and will make even more in the near future, but they could easily become subject to Windfall Profits Taxes under an Obama Administration. PetroChina (PTR) Petrobras (PZE) etc.

Go long Agricultural Commodities: Wheat (WEAT), corn, rice, cotton etc.

Go long Dividend Paying Value stocks in non-American companies, especially in the Developing World, that have strong balance sheets and are essential for civilisation. This includes mining companies, utility companies, etc. Later I will provide some specific recommendations.

America is a sinking ship. The Titanic really was struck on September 11, 2001 when the wars began, and the Federal Reserve began lowering interest rates, effectively rolling the Dot Com bubble into the Financial and Housing Bubbles which have just collapsed. Perversely we are now in the strange situation where investors are investing more in the unsinkable Titanic empire because they think it is more stable than any alternatives. As a result, the final bubble which has yet to burst is the United States Dollar bubble. The profligate borrowing, consumption, and deficit spending by the American Government and American Consumer has limits. When those limits are finally reached and the World decides to stop throwing good money after bad in lending to the United States, there will likely be a hyper-inflationary spiral, exchange controls, potential rationing of goods, and socialisation of most remaining wealth in the United States through taxation and inflation. No indication from the political leaders entering power suggests otherwise.

Now is a phase of the financial market in which traditionally safe strategies such as going long AAA bonds, going long Blue Chip companies, holding cash in a bank, or holding cash in a mattress do not make sense as a means to preserve let alone appreciate wealth. Given the artificially low interest rates, and regular "liquidity injections" on the order on trillions of dollars, there is naught but destruction of the value of the dollar in the post. In this scenario, if one has good credit and can borrow at a low interest rate - borrowing to invest in commodities and non-US assets could be a brilliant leveraged play for those with some risk tolerance. It is in effect a short sale of the US Dollar.

Currencies such as the Yen and CHF are probably safer plays than most others, but they are still fiat currencies exposed to political risk of inflation and devaluation.

Lastly, listen to Peter Schiff (Video, Radio Show) and Jim Rodgers (Video) and make up your own mind. Also read through the many pieces I have shared through Google Reader on the topics of the Federal Reserve Bank and the Financial Markets.

Warning: All trading and "investing" is gambling and involves exposure to losses in real wealth.

Aldous Huxley

Aldous Huxley deserves great attention for his deep intellect as well as his analysis of the human condition and the potentials for human life and society and the dangers of power and control enabled by emerging technology.  Huxley, who wrote 'Brave New World' in the 1930s clearly saw much more clearly into the future than most other major intellectuals of his day.  To that end listen to Huxley's "Ultimate Revolution" speech at UC Santa Barbara March 20, 1962.  

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Q & A

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Lastly, read his books.

The Wire

Available on any major torrent tracker, the HBO's 5-season television series The Wire is one of the best shows ever made. The Wire focuses on organized crime, drug abuse, poverty, social services, law enforcement, and politics in the city of Baltimore, Maryland. The Baltimore inner city, like so many inner cities in America, has gone from a once developing industrialised center to a third world backwards wasteland of despair and violence. The fuel for this downward spiral is not surprisingly the war on drugs and its selective or sporadic enforcement and large profit potentials for dealers and suppliers. In contrast to "the game" of drug dealing and related crime, there exist precious few realistically attainable economic alternatives than a life of crime and violence for those born into it. The series addresses all of these issues directly, deeply, and poignantly. The show proves its social value by making it clear that the most effective way to address the disastrous economic situation of the inner-city is to decriminalise all forms of drug sale and use whilst allowing a protected environment for various charitable and social services to administer care to those in need unhindered. Besides its value for the exploration of American inner city life, corruption, and social ills, The Wire entertains and captivates with well-developed, interesting characters at all levels of position and power. Watch consecutively and in order.

9.7 IMDB rating.

The creators of the Wire have a new mini-series, Generation Kill, on HBO.

Impeach Bush, Impeach Cheney

I am watching live Dennis Kucinich calling for the Impeachment of the President and Vice President on the floor of the House. Rep. Kucinich is one of only a small handful of honest politicians in Washington. You can look for this speech on cspan.org or youtube. This post by Brad DeLong outlines some of the impeachable offenses:

David Kurtz writes:

Talking Points Memo | Phase II: Here are the key points from the reports, according to a press release from Sen. Jay Rockefeller's office:

• Statements and implications by the President and Secretary of State suggesting that Iraq and al-Qa'ida had a partnership, or that Iraq had provided al-Qa'ida with weapons training, were not substantiated by the intelligence.
• Statements by the President and the Vice President indicating that Saddam Hussein was prepared to give weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups for attacks against the United States were contradicted by available intelligence information.
• Statements by President Bush and Vice President Cheney regarding the postwar situation in Iraq, in terms of the political, security, and economic, did not reflect the concerns and uncertainties expressed in the intelligence products.
• Statements by the President and Vice President prior to the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate regarding Iraq's chemical weapons production capability and activities did not reflect the intelligence community's uncertainties as to whether such production was ongoing.
• The Secretary of Defense's statement that the Iraqi government operated underground WMD facilities that were not vulnerable to conventional airstrikes because they were underground and deeply buried was not substantiated by available intelligence information.
• The Intelligence Community did not confirm that Muhammad Atta met an Iraqi intelligence officer in Prague in 2001 as the Vice President repeatedly claimed.

These gross violations by Richard Cheney and George W. Bush to take care that the laws be faithfully executed are High Crimes, demanding immediate impeachment and removal from office.

Kx

K and the more comprehensible Q are languages created by Artur Whitney based on APL. Kdb+ is the database system and interpreter for these languages. Kdb+ allows extremely efficient analysis of high-volume real-time and historic data simultaneously in a column based database. At $100,000 per Dual-Core Processor license, K is absurdly priced and only affordable for large financial institutions and the United States military. K is a vector based language with analogies to mathematics and human language. Nearly every character represents either a noun, verb, or adverb allowing extremely terse and efficient development and processing for those who are able to wrap their heads around the syntax.

K is powerful enough that an experienced quantitative analyst with the full range of tools could go from an idea, to a full tick-level back-test, to a fully deployed trading system in under an hour.

While this product is unfordable to nearly everyone in its full form, Kx Systems has released a limited version of the software free of charge. I highly recommend anyone interested in computer languages, analysis, finance, etc. to download and explore this amazing software which takes less than 200 KB on disk including the interpreter, an http server, and socket connectivity!

As a final note for those with a particular interest in providing programming services, it is our understanding that a capable K programmer averages about $250,000 per year working for a large investment institution.